Section 2

Seven playbooks, fully specified.

Concrete intraday strategies with setup conditions, entry triggers, structure-based stops and targets, the market conditions each works best and worst in, and a worked walk-through. Position size adapts to stop distance — never the reverse.

Strategy 1 — Trend-Following Pullback

Setup conditions: A clear intraday trend on the 15m: higher highs and higher lows (for longs), price above a rising 20 EMA and above VWAP, ADX > 25. Then a pullback of 2–5 candles on the 5m into a value zone — the 20 EMA, VWAP, or the 38.2–61.8% fib of the last impulse leg. Pullback should look corrective: small bodies, declining volume, overlapping candles. Steep, high-volume pullbacks are reversals, not pullbacks.
Entry trigger: A reversal candle in the zone: bullish engulfing, hammer, or a close back above the 9 EMA. Enter on that candle's close or the break of its high. No candle, no trade — a limit order sitting blind at the EMA gets run over on trend failure.
Stop & target: Stop below the pullback swing low, padded by ~1× 5m ATR. Target 1: the prior impulse high (take partial, move stop to entry). Target 2: 127.2–161.8% fib extension of the pullback, or trail behind each new 5m higher low / Supertrend line.
Best / worst conditions: Best: trend days — one-sided opens, price holding one side of VWAP, ADX climbing. First and second pullbacks of a fresh trend are the money trades. Worst: rotational/range days where every "trend" is three candles long, and late-day exhausted trends (fourth+ pullback, daily ATR spent).
Worked example: Walk-through
GER40: 15m shows higher lows all morning, price above VWAP since the open. 5m impulse 18,340 → 18,392, then four small red candles drift to 18,368 — the 50% fib (18,366), the rising 20 EMA (18,367), and VWAP (18,364) all cluster within a few points. Volume dries up on the pullback. A bullish engulfing closes 18,374. Entry 18,375; ATR is 10, swing low 18,363, so stop 18,353 (22 pts). Target 1 = 18,392 (partial, stop to entry); target 2 = 161.8% extension at 18,414. Price makes 18,418 within the hour. Risk 22, banked ~30 average across the position.

Strategy 2 — Opening Range Breakout (ORB)

Setup conditions: Mark the high and low of the first 15 or 30 minutes of the cash session (pick one and stay consistent). Best when the range is narrow relative to daily ATR (a wide opening range has spent the move) and when there's a catalyst or gap creating directional pressure. Note where the range sits vs. yesterday's value: an open above yesterday's VAH breaking higher is the strongest variant.
Entry trigger: A 5m close beyond the range boundary on expanding volume — not the first tick through it. Aggressive: enter on that close. Conservative (higher win rate): wait for the break-and-retest — price returns to the boundary, holds it, and prints a rejection candle.
Stop & target: Stop: midpoint of the opening range (aggressive) or below the retest low (conservative). Target 1: opening-range height projected from the breakout point. Target 2: yesterday's high/low, or 1× daily ATR from today's open. Trail the rest behind 5m swing points if a trend day develops.
Best / worst conditions: Best: news-driven opens, gap opens that don't fill in the first 15 minutes, narrow overnight ranges — anything with imbalance. Worst: quiet no-catalyst days opening mid-value — those break out, fail, and break out the other way (the dreaded double fake). Fridays and pre-holiday sessions are notorious.
Worked example: Walk-through
US100, 15-minute opening range 18,410–18,442 (32 pts; daily ATR 180 — nicely narrow) after a gap up that held. At 15:52 a 5m candle closes 18,449 on double average volume. Price dips to retest 18,442, prints a hammer at 18,443. Entry 18,448, stop 18,431 (below retest low, ~1 ATR pad), 17 pts risk. Target 1: range height → 18,442 + 32 = 18,474 (partial). Target 2: yesterday's high 18,495. Price tags 18,481 by 17:00; trailed remainder stopped 18,470. The retest entry halved the risk vs. chasing the initial break.

Strategy 3 — VWAP Reversion

Setup conditions: A balanced, two-sided day: price has crossed VWAP multiple times, ADX < 20, no dominant trend. Price then stretches to the ±2σ VWAP band (or beyond) on a move that's fading — shrinking candle bodies, momentum divergence on RSI, volume tailing off. You are betting the rubber band snaps back to fair value.
Entry trigger: At the 2σ band: a rejection candle (pin bar / engulfing) plus RSI turning back from an extreme. Enter on the candle close. Skip if the stretch was caused by a news headline — that's repricing, not stretching.
Stop & target: Stop beyond the extreme wick plus ~1 ATR — reversion trades need room to breathe, and the thesis is dead if a new extreme prints anyway. Target 1: the 1σ band (partial). Target 2: VWAP itself. Do not hold reversion trades past VWAP hoping for the opposite band — take the base hit.
Best / worst conditions: Best: midday sessions, low-news days, markets opening inside yesterday's value area. Lunchtime index chop is this strategy's home. Worst: trend days — the single most expensive mistake in this playbook is fading the 2σ band on a day that opened out of balance and never looked back. If VWAP is visibly sloping, stand down.
Worked example: Walk-through
US500, 18:30, VWAP flat at 5,236 all afternoon, price crossed it six times. A drift-down move tags the −2σ band at 5,222; the last three candles have progressively smaller bodies and RSI(14) prints 27 with a higher low vs price's lower low. A bullish pin bar closes 5,225. Entry 5,226, stop 5,216 (below wick − ATR 4), 10 pts. Target 1: −1σ at 5,230 (partial, stop to entry). Target 2: VWAP 5,236. Filled both within 40 minutes. Small, repeatable, boring — which is the point.

Strategy 4 — Range / Mean-Reversion at Structure

Setup conditions: A defined horizontal range: at least two clean touches of both boundary zones on the 5m/15m, ADX < 20, flat moving averages braided in the middle. The boundaries should align with something real — pivots, yesterday's high/low, an HVN edge. Know the range height; it must be worth trading (≥ 2× your typical stop).
Entry trigger: At a boundary: a failed poke (price wicks through the level and closes back inside) or a rejection candle, plus stochastic/%R crossing out of its extreme zone. The failed break variant is the strongest — trapped breakout traders fuel the reversion.
Stop & target: Stop beyond the boundary extreme plus ~1 ATR. Target 1: mid-range (take partial — mid-range is where ranges hold you hostage). Target 2: the opposite boundary. Hard rule: if a 5m candle closes decisively outside the range after entry, exit immediately — the range is over.
Best / worst conditions: Best: low-volatility sessions, pre-news coiling (exit before the release), markets rotating inside yesterday's value. Worst: the first two touches after a big directional move (those "ranges" are often flags that break with the trend), and any range still forming — you need the two-touch proof before fading touch three.
Worked example: Walk-through
UK100 5m: 7,932–7,964 range established over two hours (two touches each side), S1 pivot at 7,930 reinforcing the floor. Touch three: price wicks to 7,928 — through the boundary — and closes back at 7,937. Stochastic crosses up from 9. That's a failed break: shorts below 7,932 are trapped. Entry 7,939, stop 7,922 (below the failure wick + ATR), 17 pts. Target 1: mid-range 7,948 (partial). Target 2: 7,960, front-running the upper boundary. Both hit. Two hours later the range finally broke down — after a 5m close below 7,930, which by rule would have exited any open long instantly.

Strategy 5 — Volume-Confirmed Breakout

Setup conditions: A compression pattern into a meaningful level: Bollinger squeeze, triangle, or tight flag sitting just under resistance (prior day high, R1, VAH, round number). The longer the compression and the more times the level was tested, the more stops and orders are stacked behind it. Pre-conditions: level must be visible on the 15m, and daily ATR must have room left (< ~70% spent).
Entry trigger: 5m close through the level with (a) volume ≥ ~1.5–2× the 20-bar average and (b) OBV breaking its own high with price. Enter the close, or the first micro-pause (1m flag) after it. Volume is non-negotiable here — a breakout candle on average volume is a coin flip.
Stop & target: Stop below the breakout candle's low or back inside the compression (whichever is nearer structure), padded by ATR. Target 1: measured move — the height of the compression projected from the break. Target 2: next HTF level (yesterday's high → next round number / R2). Trail behind 5m swing lows if it turns into a trend leg.
Best / worst conditions: Best: post-consolidation moves aligned with the higher-timeframe trend, breakouts during high-participation hours (US/EU overlap), news-backed breaks. Worst: low-volume hours (breakouts die in thin liquidity), breaks against the 15m trend, and the third+ test of a level that has already faked twice — those become everyone's trap.
Worked example: Walk-through
GER40: 45-minute triangle compressing 18,470–18,486 directly under yesterday's high 18,488. Bollinger bands at their tightest since the open. At 15:40 a 5m candle closes 18,494 on 2.3× average volume; OBV pops to a fresh session high. Entry 18,495, stop 18,479 (inside the triangle), 16 pts. Target 1: triangle height (16) projected → 18,510 (partial). Target 2: R2 at 18,532. Price stalls at 18,528, trail stops out 18,519. The two-condition entry (close through + volume) is what separated this from the two intrabar pokes that failed earlier in the pattern.

Strategy 6 — Momentum Scalping (micro-trend continuation)

Setup conditions: An impulsive move in progress: wide-range candles, price pinned to the upper Keltner/Bollinger band, 9 EMA > 20 EMA with visible separation, on the 1m–5m. You are not predicting anything — you're hitching onto momentum that already exists and exiting before it cools. Requires spread ≤ ~1/5 of your target and full attention; this is the highest-frequency, highest-discipline playbook here.
Entry trigger: The first micro-pause after an impulse: a 1m flag of 2–4 small candles or a touch of the 9 EMA, entering on the break of the pause high. Never chase mid-candle into a vertical move — the pause is the entry; no pause, no trade.
Stop & target: Stop below the micro-flag low — scalp stops are tight by construction (often 0.5× 5m ATR). Target: fixed 1.5–2R or the last impulse's projection, taken in full — scalps are not runners. Time stop: if it hasn't moved your way within ~5 bars, kill it; momentum that pauses too long is finished.
Best / worst conditions: Best: the first 60–90 minutes of the cash open and the 30 minutes after major data — when range-per-minute is highest. Worst: lunch chop and late afternoon drift, where spreads eat the tiny edges, and news moments themselves (spreads blow out on CFDs precisely when the candles look juiciest). Commission/spread load makes this strategy unviable if your win rate slips even slightly — track it separately.
Worked example: Walk-through
US100, 15:35: impulse candle rips 18,300 → 18,326. Three 1m candles flag between 18,318–18,323 (holding above the 1m 9 EMA). Buy stop 18,324 triggers; stop 18,316 below the flag (8 pts). Target 2R fixed = 18,340. Filled 4 minutes later as the next impulse leg runs to 18,344. Flat, done, next setup. Six of these a session at 55–60% win rate is the business model; any single trade means nothing.

Strategy 7 — Harmonic Pattern Reversal (Gartley / Bat)

Setup conditions

A completed XABCD structure into a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The two workhorses:

Gartley: B = 61.8% of XA; D completes at 78.6% of XA, with CD typically 127.2–161.8% of BC.
Bat: B = 38.2–50% of XA; D completes at 88.6% of XA — a deeper, sharper PRZ.

The PRZ is a zone where the XA ratio, the BC extension, and ideally an external level (pivot, prior day high/low, HVN) overlap within a few points. Tighter overlap = better pattern. On indices, draw on 15m; execute on 5m.

Entry trigger

Never the naked limit at D. Wait for price to enter the PRZ and reject it: a 5m reversal candle (engulfing/pin) or an RSI divergence forming as D completes. Enter on the confirmation close. If price slices through the full PRZ on momentum, the pattern is invalid — no trade, and often a continuation signal the other way.

Stop & target

Stop beyond X (structural invalidation) — or for tighter risk, beyond the PRZ's far edge + 1 ATR. Targets are fib retracements of the AD leg: T1 = 38.2% AD (take partial, stop to entry), T2 = 61.8% AD. Runner can aim for C. If T1 is hit and price stalls hard at the 38.2%, that's normal — the partial is what makes the math work.

Best / worst conditions

Best: rotational and mildly trending markets where swings are clean and measurable; PRZs that coincide with session structure (yesterday's low + 88.6% Bat = prime). Worst: strong trend days — harmonics are counter-trend trades at completion, and catching D against a freight train fails no matter how perfect the ratios. Also avoid patterns whose legs span a news release; the geometry is contaminated.

Worked example

Walk-through
US500 15m bullish Bat: X = 5,210 low → A = 5,270 high, XA = 60 pts up. B pulls back to 5,242 (46.7% of XA — valid Bat B). C bounces to 5,258, then the CD leg sells off toward the 88.6% retracement of XA: D = 5,270 − 0.886 × 60 ≈ 5,216.8. PRZ 5,215–5,218 (88.6% XA overlapping the 161.8% BC extension), reinforced by the S1 pivot at 5,216. Price drops into 5,216, prints a 5m hammer, and RSI(14) makes a higher low versus its reading at an equivalent price earlier — momentum divergence inside the PRZ. Entry 5,220, stop 5,208 (below PRZ − 1 ATR; below X 5,210 too, so both invalidations covered). Targets off the CD leg (5,258 → 5,216): T1 = 38.2% back = 5,232 (partial, stop to entry), T2 = 61.8% = 5,242. Both fill over the next 90 minutes as the rotation completes. Full harmonic combos with checklists in C5 and C6.